01The problem with linear thinking
A modern water-treatment plant or thermal power station does not get attacked by a single anomalous reading. It gets attacked by a broken correlation. A skilled adversary nudges the chlorine dosage and the flow rate together so that each value, on its own, still looks fine, but the joint behaviour is wrong. The relationship between the two is what's been compromised, not either individual measurement.
This is exactly the regime where classical linear classifiers fall apart. Linear SVMs see only marginal distributions; tree ensembles see only thresholds. RBF-kernel SVMs help, but their similarity function is radial and isotropic, it has no notion that "sensor 14 and sensor 19 are physically coupled" while "sensor 14 and sensor 31 are not." The geometry of the problem isn't reflected in the geometry of the model.
A quantum kernel reaches a feature space whose structure already mirrors the system being defended.
That is the opening this paper takes. The contribution is not "quantum machine learning beats classical machine learning", that claim, in 2026, is unearned and overhyped. The contribution is more disciplined: a hardware-agnostic framework, cross-testbed validation, and execution on a real 156-qubit processor, separating what the math promises from what today's silicon delivers.
02Why ZZFeatureMap, and why eight qubits
The encoding does most of the work in any kernel method. Here, an 8-dimensional sensor vector is mapped onto an 8-qubit register through a Pauli feature map composed of Hadamard layers, single-qubit Z-rotations parameterized by individual features, and entangling ZᵢZⱼ rotations parameterized by feature products. That last term is the whole point: ZᵢZⱼ creates an entanglement structure on the quantum state whose geometry directly encodes pairwise feature correlation.
For ICS data this is structurally appropriate. Coupled process variables, flow and pressure, voltage and current, dosage and pH, are exactly pairwise-correlated quantities. The kernel inherits an inductive bias tuned to the system, not to the dataset. A classical RBF kernel can learn correlations from data given enough samples; a ZZ-feature-mapped kernel has them by construction.
Eight qubits is an engineering choice, not a theoretical one. It's the largest size where (a) statevector simulation still fits inside a 32-bit working memory budget, allowing a clean noise-free comparison; (b) transpiled circuits remain shallow enough to execute on current NISQ hardware before decoherence dominates; (c) the kernel exhibits enough expressive capacity to separate the harder HAI attack classes. Going larger does not, today, monotonically improve outcomes, past a depth of roughly 80, hardware noise erases whatever extra expressive capacity a deeper feature map provides.
03Two testbeds, two difficulty regimes
SWaT, Singapore University of Technology and Design's six-stage water-treatment testbed, is the well-known benchmark. Its attacks are largely local: a malicious actuator command is reflected, eventually, in a downstream sensor. Most modern detectors, classical or quantum, hit AUC > 0.98 on SWaT.
HAI, the Hardware-in-the-Loop Augmented ICS dataset published by the Affiliated Institute of ETRI, is harder. Attacks span multiple stages of a thermal-power loop and combine slow drifts with stealthy short bursts. Classical RBF SVMs typically land in the high-0.7 AUC range here; deep models do better but require attack volumes that operators in the real world never have.
Both testbeds were used to guard against single-dataset overfitting, a recurring weakness in ICS security results. Cross-testbed validation, with identical preprocessing and identical hyperparameter search budgets, lets the comparison say something honest about the method rather than the dataset.
04What the numbers actually say
On SWaT, the simulated quantum kernel scores AUC-ROC = 0.9912 ± 0.004, statistically tied with a tuned RBF SVM. This is a feature, not a flaw: the SWaT attack space is mostly local, the bias-fit is good for both kernels, and there is little headroom left for any model.
On HAI, the simulated quantum kernel scores 0.8309 ± 0.050. The classical RBF baseline lands at roughly 0.75, the headline +10.8% AUC improvement. Variance is higher (± 0.050), as expected when the underlying signal is weaker, but a paired comparison across the five seeds shows the gap is consistent rather than driven by one lucky split.
Hardware execution on IBM's ibm_fez processor, a 156-qubit Heron-class device, was the real test. After transpilation the 8-qubit feature map landed at depth 76 with 28 two-qubit CNOT operations. The job completed; physical realizability is no longer hypothetical. End-to-end fidelity, however, dropped by 17-20% relative to ideal simulation. That gap is the price of running on today's hardware, and it sets the agenda for what comes next.
05Reading the simulation-to-hardware gap
The 17-20% degradation is not noise, it is structure. Two-qubit CNOTs dominate the error budget at roughly 1% per gate; with 28 of them in the transpiled circuit, accumulated error alone explains a large fraction of the gap. T₂ decoherence over a depth-76 schedule explains the rest. Single-qubit gates are essentially free at this scale.
What the gap suggests, concretely, is that error mitigation, Zero-Noise Extrapolation, Probabilistic Error Cancellation, is the next research lever, not deeper circuits. Halving the gap to under 10% is plausible on existing hardware with current mitigation methods. Closing it entirely will need either fault-tolerant qubits or a feature map redesigned to commute through the dominant error channels.
06Why this matters in 2026, not 2035
Most quantum-machine-learning claims hide behind the phrase "once fault-tolerant hardware is available." Kernel methods are different. Training is still classical, the SVM solver runs on a laptop. The quantum device is called only to populate the Gram matrix. Shallow Pauli feature maps fit inside today's coherence budgets. And because the kernel is hardware-agnostic, the same code that runs on ibm_fez compiles, unmodified, onto IonQ's trapped-ion devices and Quantinuum's H-series.
For a SCADA defender, the practical question is not "is this faster than classical" but "does this catch attacks the classical detector misses?" On the harder of the two public ICS benchmarks, the answer is yes, by a margin large enough to matter for incident-response budgets. That is the bar the paper aims at.
07How this fits the broader portfolio
This work is one layer of a defence-in-depth posture for critical infrastructure. Post-quantum cryptographic primitives, Kyber, Dilithium, SPHINCS+, protect the network and key-establishment layer against future quantum cryptanalysis. The companion VLSI energy-efficiency work at IEEE ICAIC 2026 creates the silicon headroom to run those PQC primitives on resource-constrained endpoints. Quantum-kernel anomaly detection, the subject of this paper, then defends the operational telemetry layer above the cryptographic floor, catching adversaries who already have access to the network.
Together these threads form a coherent agenda: a critical-infrastructure stack that is quantum-secure at the wire and quantum-aware in the SOC.
08Reproducibility
Every figure, every number, every transpilation pass is reproducible. The full training, evaluation, and hardware-submission pipeline lives at github.com/Ali-Badami/Quantum-IDS. The simulation tier runs on any laptop with Qiskit; the hardware tier requires an IBM Quantum account but uses the public free-tier devices. Statistical robustness is reported as mean ± standard deviation over five stratified-sampling seeds; nothing in the paper rests on a single lucky split.
09What comes next
- Error mitigation. Closing the 17-20% simulation-to-hardware gap toward 5-10% with ZNE and PEC.
- Larger feature maps. 16-24 qubit ZZFeatureMaps on next-generation Heron and IonQ Forte devices, exploring whether the HAI gap widens or saturates.
- PQC integration. A single ICS gateway that authenticates with Kyber + Dilithium and detects with quantum kernels, ending the handshake-and-monitor split that today forces operators to pick one.
- Operator-in-the-loop evaluation. Moving beyond AUC to mean-time-to-detect against a live red-team, the metric defenders actually buy budget against.